股神巴菲特在今年的致股东信中说了什么？暗示了哪些投资及并购方向？接班人到底是谁？（全在这里，并附股东信全文哦）

时光飞逝，一转眼国内的同胞们已经或通过在线，或通过线下的方式复工了，北京时间2月21日中央政治局也召开了会议，虽然会议指出全国疫情发展拐点尚未到来，但和新冠状病毒肺炎的抗争终于取得了阶段性的进展，能让大家在继续防御疫情的同时，开始部署下一步的工作方案。这里我用以下一则视频共享我们此刻的心情， 愿我们健康、平安、幸福：

我也经过这段时间在美国长期的忙碌工作和学习后，可以在美国时间周六今天，和大家互动金融方面的一则最新新闻，即今天早晨股神沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）发布的年度最受期待的股东信(如下图公司官网所展示），股神在他2019年夏天就开始执笔书写的信中讨论了伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）的业务在整个2019年的整体表现。

当然信的首页中展示的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）的业绩与S&P 500业绩对比图（如下图），不难看出股神非凡的投资业绩：

巴菲特在这封连续数十年每年出版的信中，敦促投资者将注意力集中在公司的经营收益上，而不是迷恋季度或年度的亏损或收益。他还讨论了股票交易的投机性质，近期寻找大型收购目标的困难，他对伯克希尔在未来几十年以及不断变化的公司治理世界中持续成功坚信不疑。

股神还对大规模的收购和婚姻进行了有趣的比较，尽管每次收购尽管一开始都是令人兴奋的，但“reality tends to diverge from pre-nuptial expectations.”（现实往往会偏离婚前期望，因此会令人失望”）。

“Applying those images to corporate acquisitions, I’d have to say it is usually the buyer who encounters unpleasant surprises,” he wrote.（他写道：“将这些场景应用到企业收购中，我不得不说通常是买家遇到不愉快的惊喜。”）

以下是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官巴菲特股东信的几大要点：

On the Berkshire portfolio: We don’t make ‘wagers’（关于伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合：我们不是下“赌注”）

“Charlie and I do not view the $248 billion detailed above as a collection of stock market wagers – dalliances to be terminated because of downgrades by “the Street,” an earnings “miss,” expected Federal Reserve actions, possible political developments, forecasts by economists or whatever else might be the subject du jour. What we see in our holdings, rather, is an assembly of companies that we partly own and that, on a weighted basis, are earning more than 20% on the net tangible equity capital required to run their businesses. These companies, also, earn their profits without employing excessive levels of debt. Returns of that order by large, established and understandable businesses are remarkable under any circumstances. They are truly mind-blowing when compared to the returns that many investors have accepted on bonds over the last decade – 2½% or even less on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, for example.”（伯克希尔·哈撒韦持股的公司部分是伯克希尔所控股，如果以加权基础计算的话，其经营业务所需要的有形净股本收益超过20%）

$5 billion in buybacks in 2019（2019年的股票回购为50亿美元）

“Over time, we want Berkshire’s share count to go down. If the price-to-value discount (as we estimate it) widens, we will likely become more aggressive in purchasing shares. We will not, however, prop the stock at any level.”

“In 2019, the Berkshire price/value equation was modestly favorable at times, and we spent $5 billion in repurchasing about 1% of the company.”（股神说对伯克希尔公司的价格/价值很有利，所以回购了公司1%的股份。）其实在2019年，股票回购在几大超大市值的美股上市公司中被普遍使用。

Buffett still can’t find his ‘elephant’(巴菲特仍然找不到他要的“大象”)

“We constantly seek to buy new businesses that meet three criteria. First, they must earn good returns on the net tangible capital required in their operation. Second, they must be run by able and honest managers. Finally, they must be available at a sensible price. When we spot such businesses, our preference would be to buy 100% of them. But the opportunities to make major acquisitions possessing our required attributes are rare. Far more often, a fickle stock market serves up opportunities for us to buy large, but non-controlling, positions in publicly-traded companies that meet our standards.”（股神说一直在寻找购买新的公司，但需具备3个条件：

1. 必须从运营所需要的有形净资本中获得好的回报；

2. 管理人必须是有能力的且诚实的；

3. 价格必须合理。

如果遇到这种公司机会，我们倾向是100%购买。但结果机会渺茫）

巴菲特去年的这个时候说，他正在寻找一个“大象般的”收购，但是高昂的价格使他无法完成这样的交易。

Berkshire paid 1.5% of all corporate tax in 2019（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司2019年的当期所得税缴税金额占了全美国公司联邦所得税总额的1.5％）

“In 2019, Berkshire sent $3.6 billion to the U.S. Treasury to pay its current income tax. The U.S. government collected $243 billion from corporate income tax payments during the same period. From these statistics, you can take pride that your company delivered 1½% of the federal income taxes paid by all of corporate America.”（伯克希尔公司仅在2019年就向美国财政部缴纳了36亿美金的当期所得税。）02:08:34

If marriage is to acquisitions...（如果婚姻就像并购...）

“In reviewing my uneven record, I’ve concluded that acquisitions are similar to marriage: They start, of course, with a joyful wedding – but then reality tends to diverge from pre-nuptial expectations. Sometimes, wonderfully, the new union delivers bliss beyond either party’s hopes. In other cases, disillusionment is swift. Applying those images to corporate acquisitions, I’d have to say it is usually the buyer who encounters unpleasant surprises. It’s easy to get dreamy-eyed during corporate courtships. Pursuing that analogy, I would say that our marital record remains largely acceptable, with all parties happy with the decisions they made long ago. Some of our tie-ups have been positively idyllic. A meaningful number, however, have caused me all too quickly to wonder what I was thinking when I proposed. Fortunately, the fallout from many of my errors has been reduced by a characteristic shared by most businesses that disappoint: As the years pass, the “poor” business tends to stagnate, thereupon entering a state in which its operations require an ever-smaller percentage of Berkshire’s capital. Meanwhile, our “good” businesses often tend to grow and find opportunities for investing additional capital at attractive rates.” 股神还大规模的收购和婚姻进行了有趣的比较，尽管每次收购尽管一开始都是令人兴奋的，但“reality tends to diverge from pre-nuptial expectations.”（现实往往会偏离婚前期望，因此会令人失望”）。

Stocks have always been speculative: ‘Gentlemen preferred bonds’（股票一直是投机性的）

“When business ownership was sliced into small pieces – ‘stocks’ – buyers in the pre-Smith years usually thought of their shares as a short-term gamble on market movements. Even at their best, stocks were considered speculations. Gentlemen preferred bonds.”

这里股神引用了经济学家, Common Stocks as Long Term Investments书的作者Edgar Lawrence Smith的观点说明了股票的投资性这一特点。

Net income for non-insurance businesses up slightly（非保险业务的净收入略有上升）

“Our total net income in 2019 from the non-insurance businesses we control amounted to $17.7 billion, an increase of 3% from the $17.2 billion this group earned in 2018. Acquisitions and dispositions had almost no net effect on these results.” （2019年我们拥有的非保险业务总净收入为177亿美金，比起2018年的172亿美金来说，高了3%。资产的收购和处置对这些结果几乎没有影响。）

Berkshire is a fortress in the insurance industry（伯克希尔是保险业的堡垒）

“Mistakes in assessing insurance risks can be huge and can take many years – even decades – to surface and ripen. (Think asbestos.) A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur – perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now. ‘The Big One’ may come from a traditional source, such as wind or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate. When such a mega-catastrophe strikes, Berkshire will get its share of the losses and they will be big – very big. Unlike many other insurers, however, handling the loss will not come close to straining our resources, and we will be eager to add to our business the next day.”（评估保险风险的失误可能是巨大的，可能需要多年，甚至数十年才能浮出水面并逐渐成熟。当发生巨大的灾难时，伯克希尔将承担损失，这些损失将是巨大的-非常巨大。但是伯克希尔和其他保险公司不同，处理损失并不会接近耗尽我们的资源，我们将渴望在第二天增加我们的业务）

Shout out to insurance manager Ajit Jain（向保险经理Ajit Jain点赞）

“Late in 2012, Ajit Jain, the invaluable manager of our insurance operations, called to tell me that he was buying a tiny company – GUARD Insurance Group – in that small Pennsylvania city for $221 million (roughly its net worth at the time). He added that Sy Foguel, GUARD’s CEO, was going to be a star at Berkshire. Both GUARD and Sy were new names to me. Bingo and bingo: In 2019, GUARD had premium volume of $1.9 billion, up 379% since 2012, and also delivered a satisfactory underwriting profit. Since joining Berkshire, Sy has led the company into both new products and new regions of the country and has increased GUARD’s float by 265%.” （2012年末，我们保险业务的宝贵经理Ajit Jain打电话告诉我，他正以2.21亿美元（当时的净资产）在宾夕法尼亚小城收购一家小公司GUARD Insurance Group。他补充说，GUARD的首席执行官Sy Foguel将成为伯克希尔的明星。GUARD和Sy都是我的新名字。Bingo and bingo:在2019年，GUARD的保费收入为19亿美元，自2012年以来增长379％，并实现了令人满意的承保利润。自加入Berkshire以来，Sy带领公司进入了美国的新产品和新地区，并使GUARD的流通量增加了265％。）

Jokes about ‘Dancing With the Stars’（就“与星共舞”开个玩笑）

“I’d like you to know that almost all of the directors I have met over the years have been decent, likable and intelligent. They dressed well, made good neighbors and were fine citizens. I’ve enjoyed their company. Among the group are some men and women that I would not have met except for our mutual board service and who have become close friends. Nevertheless, many of these good souls are people whom I would never have chosen to handle money or business matters. It simply was not their game. They, in turn, would never have asked me for help in removing a tooth, decorating their home or improving their golf swing. Moreover, if I were ever scheduled to appear on Dancing With the Stars, I would immediately seek refuge in the Witness Protection Program. We are all duds at one thing or another. For most of us, the list is long. The important point to recognize is that if you are Bobby Fischer, you must play only chess for money.”这里股神高度赞扬公司的董事，用‘Dancing With the Stars’形容一点不为过。

Long-term stock forecast（看好股票长期投资）

“Forecasting interest rates has never been our game, and Charlie and I have no idea what rates will average over the next year, or ten or thirty years. Our perhaps jaundiced view is that the pundits who opine on these subjects reveal, by that very behavior, far more about themselves than they reveal about the future. What we can say is that if something close to current rates should prevail over the coming decades and if corporate tax rates also remain near the low level businesses now enjoy, it is almost certain that equities will over time perform far better than long-term, fixed-rate debt instruments. That rosy prediction comes with a warning: Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater. But the combination of The American Tailwind, about which I wrote last year, and the compounding wonders described by Mr. Smith, will make equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions. Others? Beware!” （股神说从来不会预测利率。查理芒格和他都不知道利率未来几年、十年或30年后将会是怎么样的。但几乎可确定，股票的长期表现将远远高于长期、固定利率债券类产品。股神提到，股票市场可能会有大幅波动，甚至可能是50%或更大的波动，但根据他去年就The American Tailwind写的观点以及上文提到的Smith先生的复利观点，对于不使用借贷资金并可以控制自己情绪的人而言，均都可说明股票投资将成为更好的长期选择。其他？一定要谨防！）

Pay attention to company earnings, not quarter-by-quarter stock gains（关注公司的收益，而不是季度的股票收益）

“Charlie and I urge you to focus on operating earnings – which were little changed in 2019 – and to ignore both quarterly and annual gains or losses from investments, whether these are realized or unrealized.” （查理和我敦促您关注营业收入（2019年变化不大），忽略投资的季度和年度收益或损失，无论这些收益是已经实现还是仍未实现。”）

Wind power business growth（风电业务增长）

“The extraordinary differential between our rates and theirs is largely the result of our huge accomplishments in converting wind into electricity. In 2021, we expect BHE’s operation to generate about 25.2 million megawatt-hours of electricity (MWh) in Iowa from wind turbines that it both owns and operates. That output will totally cover the annual needs of its Iowa customers, which run to about 24.6 million MWh. In other words, our utility will have attained wind self-sufficiency in the state of Iowa. In still another contrast, that other Iowa utility generates less than 10% of its power from wind. Furthermore, we know of no other investor-owned utility, wherever located, that by 2021 will have achieved a position of wind self-sufficiency. In 2000, BHE was serving an agricultural-based economy; today, three of its five largest customers are high-tech giants.” （股神说伯克希尔很大的差异性，是在将风能转化为电能方面取得的巨大成就上。我们预计，到2021年，BHE的运营将通过其拥有和运营的风力涡轮机在爱荷华州产生约2520万兆瓦小时的电力（MWh）。该产量将完全满足其爱荷华州客户的年度需求，达到约2460万兆瓦时。换句话说，在爱荷华州，我们的公用事业将实现风能自给自足。另一个对比是，爱荷华州的其他公用事业公司的风力发电量不到其总发电量的10％。此外，我们知道，其他投资者拥有的公用事业，无论地处哪儿，到2021年都无法实现风能自给自足。BHE在2000年为农业经济服务；而今天，BHE的5大客户中的3个均为高科技巨头企业。）

当然伯克希尔第四季度减持银行板块，买入生物科技板块，也受到业界的高度重视，这也可能是5月伯克希尔股东大会时大家和股神QnA的话题。其实生物科技也是我今年和团队在IPO和投资领域的重点领域，也希望和更多志同道合的亲们多沟通链接。

写在这里，我也专门为大家附上股神致股东信的全文链接（由于公众号要求无法在此直接超链接，但大家仅需关注公众号，并输入“巴菲特”即可获得），也附上《成为巴菲特》这部电影中英文版供大家欣赏：

GOOD LUCK TO YOUR IPO & EXPECTED INVESTMENT RETURN IN YEAR 2020！祝大家2020年IPO及投资回报节节高哦！

如果想了解更多关于我个人的信息，请在此微信公众号输入：Jackson, 即可或得关于我的个人介绍哦。